SO WHAT WOULD CHANGE IN THE TLEECOM and IT AS we look forward to the future? For starters, the migration from voice, video and data to VoIP, IPTV and IP will become faster. Expect to see IP migrate in to the wireless world, as traffic grows exponentially and bandwidth becomes a scarce commodity. The 'Gurus' of telecom are formulating their own theories of what to expect in future. The global players including the likes of Gartner, Frost & Sullivan, Morgan Stanley and Forrestor and in Middle East region, the Arab Advisors Group all sound 'positive' for 2006. The eighth annual Telecom Asia Awards, The Telecoms World Middle East 2005 Conference and Middle East Mobility & Wireless Broadband Summit can be used as beacons. Due to the diverse nature of speakers, these events speak volumes regarding the trends in telecom; they celebrate the successes of the year and try to predict the successes of the coming year.

Voice (VoIP)
Earnings reports by major phone companies reflected the growth of wireless and broadband sales but a decline in revenue from local phone services. Revenues from voice telephony are now declining in most European countries just like the rest of the world, according to IDC. It estimates that the fixed-voice market will decline from USD108bn in 2003 to USD95bn by 2008. Analysts say telcos must make the transition to Voice-over-IP to stay in business, a trend which is also beginning in the Middle East.

Worldwide VoIP Media gateway and softswitch hit 36.8 million units last year, according to a report by Dittberner Associates. China's Huawei Technologies led all gear makers with 24.48% of all port shipments, followed by Nortel Networks with 18.21%. ZTE Corp. continued its dramatic overseas growth, more than doubling its revenues from business outside China. In a boost for major technology suppliers, smaller companies ramped up spending after years of caution. U.S. enterprise purchases of hosted IP telephony (IPT) in which IP-based voice communications are provided remotely by a network service provider are forecasted to grow from $310 million in 2005 to $5.9 billion in 2010. The telecommunications market outside the United States will pass the $2 trillion mark by 2008, according to new estimates from the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) contained in its just-published annual Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast. TIA is predicting a 10.6-percent compound annual growth rate from 2004 to 2008 for telecommunications, driven by massive growth in wireless and high-speed broadband access.

The global broadband boom is now unstoppable as worldwide sales revenues for broadband modems, routers and gateways rocket. More than 50 percent of all U.S. households now have a DVD player, wireless phone, and Internet access. But only 25 percent have broadband. More businesses are looking to voice-over-wireless LANs as a way to give employees increased mobility and cut back on cellular network fees. Meru Networks and Avaya are among the vendors exploring the market and planning to develop products together.

The value of the VoIP market will skyrocket from $1.24 billion in 2004 to $23.4 billion in 2009, according to a report by research firm Infonetics. Cisco Systems and Avaya were the fastest-growing vendors of VoIP equipment, the report said. Nortel Networks is the No. 1 player in the North American IP PBX market, followed by Avaya and Cisco Systems, respectively.

Dr. James Canton (a renowned global futurist) has predicted that within a decade telecoms companies will be offering voice calls for free and making all their money from data services. VoIP as a pure-play application likely won't survive on a fee-based model, says VOIP magazine's Bryan Richard. Instead, it's more likely to become part of a bundle with other applications, or will be offered for free. After a long period, the fiber market appears to making a comeback, according to analysts. Demand for advanced telecom services is driving the new growth, they say.

VIDEO (IPTV)
CEO Cisco Systems John Chambers said he expects demand for video services to increase network loads by 300% to 500% over the next decade. A report by Infonetics Research predicts worldwide spending on IPTV infrastructure spending will get close to $1 billion in 2006 and $4.5 billion in 2009. IPTV will establish a powerful position in the worldwide TV market over the next decade as more consumers discover its potential to deliver a superior TV experience. Worldwide IPTV subscriptions are expected to surge from 2.5 million to 25 million by 2010, a report by Informa Telecoms & Media predicts. The report says China will have the most IPTV subscribers in 2010 with 4.9 million, followed by the U.S. with 3.9 million. France will lead the way in EU in 2009 with 2.4 million IPTV subscribers. In the U.S., telecoms are scrambling to build TV systems using IPTV, but in Asia the technology is already well-established and the number of IPTV subscribers is set to double in the next year. All the major wireless carriers have launched or are in the process of launching TV services for mobile phones.
Although it's difficult to determine how many people are watching TV on their handsets, research firm Yankee Group estimates the number of subscribers could reach 10.8 million by 2008. Two major impediments to widespread adoption are a lack of phones capable of handling video and image quality that doesn't match home TV service. The growth of triple-play services and the eventual emergence of the quadruple play is a benefit for gear makers, says Standard & Poor's analyst Ken Leon. Expect Merger-Mania to hit the IPTV scene.

DATA (IP)
Worldwide PC shipments are projected to hit 199 million units, whereas the sales of laptops continue to grow. 2005 saw a sharp rise in the number of hotspots as JiWire, a wireless information and service provider put this number at more than 65,000 Wi-Fi hotspots in 100 countries with the U.S. in No. 1 spot, with nearly 27,600, followed by the U.K., with almost 10,500, and Germany, with about 6,200. The market for Wireless Local Area Networks (WLANs) in North American schools is set to explode, growing to $200 million annually by 2008 double last year's sales according to new estimates from market researcher Datamonitor. In 2005, Chipmaker AMD has outsold Intel for the first time in processors for desktop and notebook computers in US retail stores, according to data from analyst firm Current Analysis. AMD claimed a 49.8 per cent market. Large-scale enterprise adoption pushed sales of wireless LAN equipment by 13 per cent in 2005 to $2.6bn - Despite security fears, the market for wireless LAN gear will roughly double in value and triple in unit shipments by 2009, largely thanks to next-generation technology delivering higher throughput.

A recent UN Human Development Report said that only 2 per cent of the Middle East's population uses the Internet. Africa's Internet penetration is just 1.5%, compared with about 50% overall in developed countries, On the positive side, Africa is the world's fastest-growing mobile phone market, a trend that has resulted from low fixed-line deployment. Dubai has been ranked as the top Arab city for digital convergence in a report by a Rutgers University in the US. Internet penetration rate in Dubai, which stands at 39 per cent, is slightly lower than those found in most advanced economies. Dubai eGovernment aims to offer 90 per cent of government services through electronic channels, including the internet, mobile devices and fixed line telephones, by the end of 2007. Saudi Arabia lead the way in regional IT spending with a projected outlay of USD2.2bn for 2005, a growth rate of 11 per cent, according to an IDC report.

UAE IT spending is estimated to grow 10 per cent to USD1.37bn; Qatar 14 per cent to USD220m; Kuwait 12.5 per cent to USD465m; and Bahrain to USD230m. The ongoing liberalization of Jordan's ICT sector is set to drive the growth of Jordan's telecommunications market to a level in excess of a billion dollars annually, according to Jordan's Telecommunications Regulator.

IDC says that around 20 per cent of PCs sold in the Middle East are presently laptop models. But sales are set to soar from 450,000 in 2004 to 1.3m by 2009. Acer Computer has boosted its sales by more than 100 per cent for a second year in a row, with a particularly strong performance in Saudi Arabia. Acer now accounts for one-in-four laptop sales in the Kingdom. LG Electronics attempted to sell USD300m worth of mobile phone handsets in the Middle East and Africa region in 2005 while BenQ targeted the Saudi market in 2005, where half the 25m population is estimated to be under 20. BenQ promote products aimed at young people such as mp3 players, notebook PCs and digital cameras. Bill Joy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems and now a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers, says the Internet of the future will be accessible anywhere, anytime through wireless devices. Joy said the PC's role as the main Web interface will decrease in coming years and that the most successful companies will use the Internet as their main platform.

Wireless World
Annual global spending rose at least 7% in 2005. The US government will increase spending on wireless communications from $1.9 billion in FY 2005 to $3.3 billion in FY 2010, an analyst for the government-intelligence firm Input said.

Consumers in Asia and Europe are already experiencing what a so-called wireless wallet world looks like, as mobile phone technology takes on more capability. Paying for a soda or covering parking fees with a mobile phone is becoming more common in many cities, and the trend is making its way to the U.S. Mobile phone penetration in Western Europe could reach 100% by 2007.

New subscribers have been signing up for GSM service in recent months at an amazing pace of more than one million per
day, according to a new count by the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA). More than 1 billion mobile phones will be sold annually with 2.6 billion people using the devices by 2009, according to a new survey by Gartner research group. The cell phone gaming market reached around $2.6 billion by the end of 2005, up from $587 million in 2003. Research suggests that only 1% to 2% of web-enabled mobile phones are used for anything other than making calls and text messaging. However, experts predict Internet browsing via mobile phone will become as common as text messaging is today.

Nokia has captured 17% of the market for 3G phones, making it the clear market leader, according to a report by Strategy Analytics. 2005 was the year that 3G affirmed its position as a serious communication technology. By 2008 3G will be selling more than 300 million units yearly. Nokia Corp., the world's largest mobile phone maker, said it has sold more than 1 billion handsets and estimated that more than 2 billion people use mobile phones worldwide.

UAE's Etisalat has secured a strong growth in all major areas in the first quarter of 2005. Its net profit for the first quarter is US$278 million a 24% over the same period last year. Total assets of the company have grown by 15%, earnings per share increased by 22%, GSM increased by 23% to 3.9 million lines, a 90% mobile penetration. Fixed lines increased by 4% to 1.2 million lines and Internet connections went up by 20% to more than 430,000 connections.

Globally, Ettihad Etisalat (Mobily) has announced the launch of a GSM network in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) while Kuwaiti mobile phone operator snapped up Celtel, the African cell phone group for about $3.32 billion in cash.

Bahrain's mobile telephone market recorded revenues of more than USD280m last year, Mobile penetration rate reached 91 per cent through the Kingdom's two providers Batelco and MTC-Vodaphone. Qatar's Qtel could face GSM competition in Qatar in 2006, according to a report by the Arab Advisors Group. It projects that mobile subscribers in Qatar will reach 702,000 by the end of 2008, a penetration rate of 87 per cent. This corresponds to a compound annual growth rate of 13.3 per cent from 2003-2008.

WiMax Penetration
IN-STAT forecasts that by 2009 only 3 percent of total broadband subscribers, or 8.5 million subscribers worldwide, will be using WiMAX. More than half of those also will subscribe to voice-over-WiMAX services, the firm predicts, since support for VoIP with quality of service is built into the standard. The Asia-Pacific market is projected to have 3.8 million WiMAX subscribers by 2009, or 45% of the global market, however, the report notes that spectrum regulations in some countries could hinder WiMAX adoption

Last words
Customers are concerned about the potential impact on price, innovation, and the combined network performance/customer service and support experience. There are some actions that every enterprise can and should take now to future-proof its network investment, including strategically diversifying providers, optimizing the timing of technology migration, and revising contract prices, terms, and conditions. Still expect merger mania to grow further in 2005 as voice, video and data carriers stumble to become 'triple play' and in some cases 'quad play' providers.

The writer is a BSc. (EE)& MBA from USA. Some of his certifications include MCSE, CCNA, NGDLC, ATM and NGN among others. He has worked in Telecommunications, and taught in various universities. Currently he is working as an Telecom/IT Consultant in UAE and running an online newsletter.
He can be reached at info@farooq.com.pk