World Telecommunication Day 2005 was marked as an important anniversary. It will be more than a century since telecom began helping the world communicate. From the birth of the telegraph, through radio and television broadcasting to satellite communications and the Internet, the work of telecom has helped harness the power of science and technology to fulfill a basic human need for communication. It is next to impossible to do justice to a huge field such as telecom in a short writing; none the less it is interesting to make an attempt.

PAST:
Telecommunications in the past century has consisted primarily of a combination of narrowband, circuit-switched voice, fax and data and, more recently, packet-switched data and voice. The networks have supported multiple formats and data rates, using mainly electronic switching with SONET rings for multiplexing to high data rates, and high-speed restoration. For the past almost 150 years, Telecommunications has experienced what can be termed a peaceful evolution. In the late 1800s, it started as analog in nature, using twisted copper pairs for single channel communications transport and with conversation which was mechanically switched in the central office.

In early 1900s the invention of vacuum tube led to analog systems utilizing FDM (frequency division multiplexing). Multiplexing was expensive, so the technology was reserved for long-distance and high-volume service. FDM technology resulted in the consolidation of the long-distance networks into fewer routes with much more capacity.

In 1950s the advent of the transistor changed the field of telecommunications among others. TDM (Time Division Multiplexing) was born. In 1969, transistor-based digital wireless systems (RF transmission systems including microwave and satellite) were developed. In 1960s, the concept of PCM (pulse code modulation) was developed. This when used in conjunction with TDM resulted in the first electronic switch and offered relief to the growing voice traffic. In 1970s laser diode was invented, so light wave transmission took place. Fiber optic systems using WDM (Wave Division Multiplexing) were also being deployed. It was the same time period when packet switching was introduced. In 1980s major migration from copper to fiber started. Fiber was planted under ground as well as under sea; the first trans-Atlantic optic fiber cable was planted. This growth has continued and has made it from the Core (SONET) to the Access in the form of FTTH (Fiber to the Home). Another non-technical but important migration stated in the attitudes of the regulation authorities, as the once Ministry of PTT (Post, Telephone and Telegraph) in most if not all countries of the world started to melt away.

In 1990s Internet became more commercialized riding on the Telecommunication Infrastructure. The isolated islands of data communication were let loose on the information highway. This is where the Evolution turned into Revolution. Telecommunications providers were forced to upgrade their networks to accommodate this enormous amount of traffic. Vendors were forced to make gear, which were more ’data-friendly’ and introduced technologies, which could bear the onslaught brought by this wave. Frame Relay, ISDN, ATM and DSL are all productions of this era. Broadband was not just a buzzword, but a ’must-have’. But the major revolution that happened in Telecommunications has been the Circuit to Packet (C2P) Migration, and the Convergence of Voice, Video and Data services, as known as ’Triple Play’.

PRESENT:
In 2000s, the theme has turned into ’Triple Play Solutions: Anytime, Anywhere’. New generation is well versed in Internet and now demands mobility. Having voice, video and data on one network is not enough, it has to be wireless as well. The NET revolution has become more violent due to the explosion of wireless growth. As a matter of fact, both wireless and Internet complement each other. Not only are new technologies being introduced, but they are being rolled out at a pace never seen before. New kids on the block include WAP, GPRS, WiFi, WiMax and WLL. HOT SPOTS are the new stars of this decade. Consumers are being bombarded with terms such as wireless, mobile, portable and the likes. In a nutshell, Telecommunications networks started to transition from fixed lines to mobile to Internet.

All great evolutions in Telecommunications started from the backbone (CORE) and migrated towards the last mile (Access). Introduction of technologies such as FDM, TDM, improvements to the telecommunications infrastructure such as Multiplexers, Switches, Digital Loop Carriers, introduction of fiber both as Transport (SONET, WDM, DWDM) and as Access (FITL, FTTC, FTTH), advancements in wireless again both as Transport (Microwave, Satellite) and Access (GSM, WCDMA, 3G) have all followed this roadmap. VoIP has been unique in the sense that it started from the access and worked its way back towards the CORE. Telecommunications providers resisted this wave, but eventually gave in and joined the bandwagon. This onslaught has been fueled by the advent of numerous Wireless Technologies, such as WiFi, WiMax and WLL. The trends in technological advances have been violent. ISDN which was considered as the first voice/data solution was phased out to the more robust ATM, which in turn is losing to the new flavor of Ethernet, the Gigabit Ethernet.

Currently, there are 1.4 billion telephone lines, 1.1 billion cellular telephone subscribers 400-500 million Internet users which translate into 250 billion minutes of int’l voice/fax traffic, 2.5 trillion minutes of total voice/fax traffic, 1’000’000 Gigabits (1 Petabit) per second of Internet traffic, Services market of around US$1.1 trillion, Equipment market of around US$400 billion. New Generation is rejecting the fixed lines.

FUTURE:
There are four major components that form the Telecommunications puzzle; Vendors, Service Providers, End users and Regulators. Each has a tremendous effect on how the future will be formed. Gone are the days when vendors twisted the arms of service providers, forcing their ’boxes’ upon them, which in turn forced the end user with a limited choice of services. Customers are smarter and more educated about various technologies and demand the best for the minimum possible price. Lets look at all four briefly.

Vendors:
The telecom landscape is changing drastically and swiftly, in
virtually every dimension and the telecom network of the 22nd century will be radically different from the network of today. All traffic will be packet-switched through a single format IP-network, with an optical backbone, running at rates in excess of 10 Tb/s, with optical switching, and optical restoration. Networks will have to offer a variety of access systems ranging from wireless to circuit to packet systems, a set of transport switching and routing systems that has an optical core. A set of network services that build on top of the transport to make them useful, A layer of network management to perform element and multi-element network management, remotely, proactive monitoring and automatic response to outages. A layer of service provisioning systems performing customer care, billing, trouble, tracking/ dispatching and adding/removing services remotely with minimum or no downtime. Networks will HAVE to be Evolvable, Scalable, Flexible, Reliable, Have open standards, be easy to maintain and operate, be open to rapid service development, be priced competitively, Support multiple services, be most important of all, Be Secure, in order to survive.

Expect further refinement and growth of Intelligent Networks (IN), pro-active and self healing, offering security features with minimum supervision. As light based systems are improved upon, we will see more switching and not just multiplexing in light domain. This will give birth to a whole new world, since Optical to Electrical (O/E) and vice versa switching causes huge delays. Bandwidth will not just be increased alone but groomed and managed. Unused bandwidth will be viewed as a ’cost’ and every byte will be sold, be it in wireless or wire line. Legacy switches will phase out and will be replaced by ’intelligent’ data switches (layer 2/3). As a result, the data world hierarchy referred to, as CORE, ENTERPRISE and EDGE will be reduced from 3-tier network to 2-tier network due to this migration of intelligence to the EDGE. It will be just CORE and EDGE. As users demand mobility, EDGE will experience a rise in technologies such as FWO, WLL, WiFi, Wimax and 3G. As the lines between voice, video and data start to blur further, there will see a take over by VoIP from wireless to wire line, from CORE to ACCESS. Issues such as billing, reliability, security will be ironed out. Existing technologies will be given a ’face-lift’ and in many cases be replaced altogether; these technologies such as optical networks, wireless networks, the Internet, and broadband technologies, will assist us in migrating from narrowband to wideband to broadband networks over the next decade. Some technologies will render themselves
As users demand mobility, EDGE will experience a rise in technologies such as FWO, WLL, WiFi, Wimax and 3G. As the lines between voice, video and data start to blur further, there will see a take over by VoIP from wireless to wire line, from CORE to ACCESS.

obsolete during different phases of their life cycles (introduction, growth, maturity and decline), but most will still hang around, especially which have been planted a lot, e.g. ISDN.

Service Providers:
Even though Total billable minutes of used (MOUs) will continue to grow, the Voice revenue will continue to decline and replaced by the more profitable data traffic, bulk Internet traffic as well as the insignificant looking SMS/MMS. This will force TELCOS to upgrade their networks to make them more data-friendly and eventually VoIP will not be a dirty word as all voice traffic will be carried in the form of data packets.

TELCOS have dropped opposition to VoIP and are embracing it, as they have realized that their survival depends on it. Again this migration will start from the ’core’ and work its way up to the Edge and finally Access. VoIP and VoIP related solutions (products and services), security billing, QoS will grow. We will see growth in Ring Tones, M-Gaming, Chatting, M-Shopping, and M-government! More bandwidth hungry E-business applications will continue to grow, forcing a tremendous growth for Internet.

As rate wars continue and further heat, profit margins will thin out, stock values of Telecommunications vendors as well as service providers will tumble, but vendors and carriers (esp. wireless carriers with their huge air spectrum fees) will try to establish as huge a footprint as they can. A lot of mergers and acquisitions will take place.

End Users:
On the end user side, as more and more consumers demand ’Always-ON’ voice, video and data solutions, we will see more gadgets, such as smart phones (a combination of cell phone, PDA and laptop), which consume less power and offer more battery life. They will have rugged shells and will be ’recycle-able’ and in some cases ’disposal’. Voice Video and Data will no longer be limited to your PC only, but to your smart phone or a similar portable ’communications’ device. ’Triple Play’ will not only mean a network, which can handle different forms of traffic, but offer solutions. Users will hold Service providers responsible for security.

Regulators
It used to be Ministry of PTT (Post, Telephone and Telegraph) in most if not all countries of the world. United States was a trendsetter when it started Deregulation of Telecom sector in 1980s. The other countries are following the same practice, and not because TELCOS have had a change of heart but the fact that they realize that they have no other choice. There will be a movement from Monopoly to Duopoly and to Increasing competition, Private sector participation and Independent regulation will also make their presence felt. In addition to this, cable operators, telecommunications service providers and new data entrants will all compete with each other by offering a ’One Package Solution’ to increase their customer base and hence their revenues.
There will be more relaxation in the rules and regulations, since all nations fear falling behind in the technological sphere. These changes will also occur in entertainment industry (movies, cable operators, satellite content providers). The convergence of telecommunications, computation and entertainment industries, will lead to the provision of innovative services e.g. Bandwidth expansion, the great Rates war, and the Globalization. This in turn will create a need for a new generation of both technical and personal management skills.

In a nutshell, Telecom and Internet both need each other whether they like it or not. TELCOS need to revamp their operations and go to Next Generation Networks (NGN) to accommodate Internet 2, which will be more bandwidth intensive, demanding QoS and used by real-time applications and mission critical services. The Internet needs to implement IPv6, thus increasing security and eliminating a constant fear of ’running out of IP addresses. Broadband will continue to grow, battle between DSL, and Cable modem will continue, ISDN, T1 will decline (new installations). On the wire-line front, Fast Ethernet to gigabit transition will happen, DSL will post a solid growth, Cable Modem will follow second, but the leaders would be wireless such as Wi Fi, WiMax, Ultrawide-band, Bluetooth, Zig Bee and RFID. These will eliminate any lines left between PAN, CAN, LAN, MAN and WAN. How accurate we will be in predicting future? Well, I leave the readers with an interesting quote…
”This ’telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications. The device is inherently of no value to us.” -An 1876 internal memo at Western Union, responding to Alexander Graham Bell’s offer to sell them his patent on the telephone for $100,000

Muhammad Farooq is a BSc. (EE) from USA and is completing his MBA. He is MCSE, CCNA, NGDLC, ATM and NGN certified. He has worked in Telecommunications sector, and taught at various universities. Currently he is working as a Telecom/IT Consultant in UAE and running an online Telecom/IT newsletter (www.farooq.com.pk).
He can be reached at info@farooq.com.pk